Metaculus Monday 2/8/21 - Where Astral Codex covers betting sites.
Wow - he covered Kalshi. Luana is killing it!
Other thought proviking bets shown in Metacalculus - my favorite being whether AI will write a NYT best seller before 2030, and the odds are 35%.
Marc Andreessen on CartaX, an exchange for companies in the valley between private and public.
Angela Strange (from a16z) on Valon - leading the evolution of mortgage servicing for consumers, originators, and investors. Or, in other words, handling the lifespan of your mortgage after it is taken out. Many companies focus on the taking of the loan, but few focus on the handling of it, and this is one that does it well.
Margit Wennmachers - The Future, from a16z. They are expanding into a media company. Once before I heard that a16z is a VC that makes money to fund a media company.
Andrew Chen - a16z - Why Clubhouse? Because you can listen while you're doing other things. You won't feel alone anymore. Uhm, the radio?
Cathy Bae - how will you survive!? Very interesting strategy - allocate more and more to safer stocks - larger companies and wait until a drawdown so you can exit quickly. As you exit, trickle more money into the beaten-up small cap stocks as they'll be at a bargain. They did it in March and they promise to do it again in the future. However, liquidity concerns are still there, and people are worrying.
Maybe this is why ARK's growth will slow down despite incredible performance.
“Liquidity is there only when you don’t need it.”
The CBOE is incentivizing the market-making of ETFs. NYSE is trying to lure them in as well with better fee structures.
What does this mean for ETFs going forward? All exchanges want businesses with it. What does it mean for bundling? Will sectors become more and more correlated? Or maybe different non-sector clusterings will start to arise. ESG related companies? Maybe this is observable already.
Absolutely love this paper. For the VC future in us.
Cognitive Psychology at its best.
What was supposed to happen: The trade war was billed as a plan to bring China to its knees by choking off the all-important American market with 25% tariffs on many imports that would rein in the U.S. trade deficit, boost American exports and slow China's rise as a global superpower.
What really happened:
The tariffs forced American companies to accept lower profit margins, cut wages and jobs for U.S. workers, defer potential wage hikes or expansions, and raise prices for American consumers or companies," analysts at Brookings noted in August.
What's your company's flywheel?
We will make bold rather than timid investment decisions where we see a sufficient probability of gaining market leadership advantages. Some of these investments will pay off, others will not, and we will have learned another valuable lesson in either case.
Wrt AWS - having solved the problem for itself, Amazon could solve it for everyone.
Switching apps has enormous impact on our productivity.
Prioritizing wellbeing requires a leadership commitment to employee
engagement. With only 15% of workers feeling completely heard by their
organization, it’s clear that starting, and continuing, a dialogue is key.
Of all the factors that drive creativity,
productivity, and collegiality among employees,
the single most important one is a sense of making
progress on meaningful work.
Maybe what's causing so many people to look for different jobs is the fact they're all burning out.